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Forbes Financial Magazine Unemployment Report

Forbes Financial Magazine Unemployment Numbers

U6 Unemployment

Unemployment Reports

Total Labor Force Unemployed

2013 Unemployment Numbers

October 2013 U3 Unemployment 7.3%

Net Employment Gain of – 516,000 People

720,000 People Leave The Workforce Reducing the Unemployment  Percentage. 

October 2013 Employment

Gain of 204,000 jobs. 

This month more people are leaving the workforce then are getting hired.

 

Increases in low wage

and part time workers.

Inside the numbers. 

Calculating the True Unemployment Number.

UNEMPLOYMENT REPORT 2013

One year later the US gains only 1,374,000 jobs.  The unemployment number drops to 6.7 % because  almost 600,000 people are no longer counted in the numbers. Labor Force Dropouts

The Illusion of  Full Employment.

FORBES FINANCIAL MAGAZINE 2013

How many people really work 40 hours a week?

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FORBES FINANCIAL MAGAZINE 2013

BEHIND THE NUMBERS ONE YEAR LATER THE US GAINS ONLY 1,374,000 JOBS YET TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN BONDS ARE HELD BY THE FED.

The civilian noninstitutional population refers to people 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 States and the District of Columbia who are not inmates of institutions (penal, mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.

 

From 2012 to 2013 the amount of available people that came into the Civilian Noninstitutional population  has increased by 2 Million 394 thousand people of what is called working age.

 

The Civilian Labor Force has lost 584,000 people.  These people are now no longer counted as job seekers.  This reduces the overall work force.  The government uses a polling system of 60,000 people to determine all the numbers of unemployment.

 

The total number of people now working after one year has only increased by 1,374,000 people.  Understand that we lost 584 thousand people.

 

Here you see the 2012 Total Unemployment count was 12,273,000 but in 2013 we now have only 10,351,000 million people unemployed.  The reason for the decrease is because people dropped out of the workforce.

 

The Federal Reserve gets an F for Failure after trillions of dollars are spent to gain only 1,374,000 jobs from 2012 to 2013.  This is the net gain after one year.  Do not look at unemployment percentages as your indicator of improving economics.

 

Note that we are losing labor participation and this is shown by a .8% drop one year later.  People are giving up looking.  They are not retiring either because their savings are eroding from inflation.

2013 Labor And Unemployment Summary

2013 Gains Only 1,374,000 Jobs

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FORBES FINANCIAL MAGAZINE 2013

2013-2014 Work Hours Summary

Only 60 Million People Work 40 Hours

When you hear we have 6.7% unemployment you may think we are a growing economy with hundreds of millions of people working 40 hour work weeks.  But the fact is the numbers show us that we have only about 60 Million people working 40 Hours a week.  The chart below details the current breakdown as of February 2014.  The US appears to have at least another 44 Million people working 35 Hours a week.  So looking at the total number of people working 35 hours and over that number comes out to a little over 105 million people.  We can add another 10 million for 30 hours to 34 hours a week but that’s not a lot of people out of a population of over 315 million people with a potential workforce of about 245 million people between the ages of 20-65.

FORBES FINANCIAL MAGAZINE 2013

Text Box: This information was provided from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

How The Labor Department Calculates Employment?

The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration project.  Beginning with the release of July 2001 data, labor force estimates from the CPS reflect the expansion of the monthly CPS sample from about 50,000 to about 60,000 eligible households.

 

The interview generally is conducted by telephone. Approximately 70 percent of the households in any given month are interviewed by telephone. A portion of the households (10 percent) is interviewed via computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI), from three centralized telephone centers (located in Hagerstown, MD; Jeffersonville, IN; and Tucson, AZ) by interviewers who also use a computerized questionnaire.  The primary purpose of these questions is to classify the sample population into the three basic economic groups: The employed, the unemployed, and those not in the labor force.  At the end of each day's interviewing, the data collected are transmitted to the Census Bureau's central computer in Washington, DC. Once files are transmitted to the main computer, they are deleted from the laptops.

 

Interviewers are given intensive training, including classroom lectures, discussion, practice, observation, home-study materials, and on-the-job training. At least once a year, they convene for daylong training and review sessions, and, also at least once a year, they are accompanied by a supervisor during a full day of interviewing to determine how well they carry out their assignments.  A selected number of households are reinterviewed each month to determine whether the information obtained in the first interview was correct. The information gained from these interviews is used to improve the entire training program.

 

Who is counted as employed?

Not all of the wide range of job situations in the American economy fit neatly into a given category. For example, people are considered employed if they did any work at all for pay or profit during the survey week. This includes all part-time and temporary work, as well as regular full-time, year-round employment. Persons also are counted as employed if they have a job at which they did not work during the survey week.

 

Who is not in the labor force?

Labor force measures are based on the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years old and over. Excluded are persons under 16 years of age, all persons confined to institutions such as nursing homes and prisons, and persons on active duty in the Armed Forces. As mentioned previously, the labor force is made up of the employed and the unemployed. The remainder - those who have no job and are not looking for one - are counted as "not in the labor force." Many who are not in the labor force are going to school or are retired. Family responsibilities keep others out of the labor force.

How Does The Government Calculate

The Unemployment Number Each Month

 

The US Potential Labor Pool is about 240 Million people but only

60 thousand are called to calculate the employment numbers each month.

FORBES FINANCIAL MAGAZINE 2013

The US civilian labor force grows each year but never even gets close to the true available work force number of 240 million potentially available workers in the US.  The Potential Labor Pool is the number of all people in the US between the ages of 20 - 65 years of age and this is how you get to the 240 Million available potential workers.  The US Census and Department of Labor often refer to this number as Working-age Population.

 

In Japan this number is calculated between the ages of 20 – 69 years of age and that is what it will need to be in the United States as well in the future.  People are living longer and people now have to work longer for multiple reasons and the work age will need to change just as the retirement age will need to increase from 65 to 69.  When this number gets adjusted the Civilian Labor Force number will increase and the unemployment number with also need to be adjusted higher. 

 

As you can see from the chart below the Civilian Labor Force continues to grow as shown in the blue line within the chart below.  The red line shows the unemployment number within the Civilian Work Force.  Discouraged workers get removed from the Civilian Labor Pool and are no longer counted at some point.  The US Department of Labor does not call everyone in the United States to track what you are doing or not doing.  All of these numbers are based on a magic formula explained in part on the previous page.  Most of the labor forces numbers and unemployment is based on guess work and several formulas from the 60,000 people they call as a sample each month.  The bottom line is there are about 56 million people that are of working age which are not part of the US labor pool or cant work or can’t find work for some reason.

Population Increases Continually And That Means

The Civilian Labor Force Number Will Increase

 

US Population 315 Million.

US Potential Labor Pool 240 Million people. 

US Civilian Labor Force 155 Million.

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132,495 Million Employed

FORBES FINANCIAL MAGAZINE 2013

Just think if your country used its entire workforce from age 20-65!  This would mean your unemployed would be 97,393,000 or 40.48 Percent Unemployed U3 or 55% using U6 out of the entire Potential Labor Force.  You may also say that under the current system that 143,225,000 people are funding revenue to sustain 315,273,135 people.  Corporations do create wealth which is taxed but that is a very small part of the revenue stream in America.  Its important to remember that the total number of U3 people counted as employed include people counted working as few as 1 hour a week and many are low hour part time workers.  This means the 143,225,000 people that are counted as employed under the U3 calculation are not all really full time 40 hour a week people but most people assume that they are full time employed.

January 2013 True Employment Comparison

 

US Population 315 Million.

US Potential Labor Pool 240 Million people. 

US Civilian Labor Force 155 Million.

US Civilian Labor Force 155 Million Less 23 Million U6 Unemployed

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FORBES FINANCIAL MAGAZINE 2013

We do not have numbers for people that retire early before 65 but we also do not have the number for people over 65 that are still in the workforce.  What we do know is that the number of potential workers in the US is much greater then what is being reported.  We are also generous and using employment numbers which are based from the U3 Department of Labor calculations.  If we had used the U6 Unemployment numbers the True Unemployment number would be much greater then 32.1%.  The number of people counted as EMPLOYEED under a USDL U6 measurement comes out to 132,912,000 people employed as opposed to the U3 calculation which is 143,255,000 employed.  As the population increases more people trying to get the same jobs increases while at the same time we automate more processes which leads to a greater number of months being unemployed.  This is most evident when viewing

THE NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED 15 MONTHS AND GREATER AT ALL TIME HIGHS IN 2013

Calculating True Unemployment

 

US Population 315 Million.

US Potential Labor Pool 240 Million people Age 20-65

 

Minus US People in Prisons 2.5 Million

Minus US People in Mental Institutions 1 Million

Minus US Stay at Home Mom’s 5 Million

Minus US Students with Zero Work Hours a Week “NON-Working” 6 Million

 

Possible True Labor POOL or Work Force is 225.5 Million

Minus US Full Time Armed Services 1.5 Million

Minus US Self Employed of 10 Million = 214 Million

Minus US Farm Workers 3 Million (Not Counted by USDL) = 211 Million

 

True Labor Pool should be 211 Million People

143,255 Million people in the US are currently employed (Based on U3)

US Potential Labor Force of 211 Million minus current employed of 143,255 Million workers and we get a true unemployment number of 67,745,000

The True US Unemployment Percentage is about 32.1% in 2013.

 

The USDL Says the Total US Labor Pool is 155,238,000 People

This means the USDL Does Not Count 56 Million as part of the Labor Pool.

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FORBES FINANCIAL MAGAZINE 2013

THE NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED 15 MONTHS AND GREATER AT ALL TIME HIGHS IN 2013

 

Take a look at the above chart and you can see that as we go forward in time the number of job seekers that can not get jobs grows larger in each recession.  Job seekers are spending over a year trying to find work until they no longer get counted as part of the labor pool or finally get work.  Interestingly what the raw data numbers show us is that over a 55 year period in which we have had 11 recessions the number of people that can’t get jobs gets worse as we move forward in time.

 

Every 10 years technology changes creating a tougher environment for workers because technology replaces jobs.  Each decade only highly skilled workers get the jobs first and most of others work skills will not be needed or are needed less.  This also means a high number of skilled workers will need to trade down in pay scale to just keep working while at the same time the Federal Reserve pushes inflation levels at 2 percent or higher each year eroding any savings of the existing population sending people into the streets.

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There is a problem here with the drop in unemployment this Quarter from 7.8% to the current 7.6%.  The reason for the drop was because 496,000 people have been reduced from the current labor pool.  This is not because more people were being employed which caused the number to decrease.  The fact that we only added 88,000 is nothing and this was about what we had expected based on our internal numbers and estimates.  The numbers were a little high coming out of the January and February months in part do to after holiday and east cost storm cleanup and rebuilding from hurricane Sandy which was estimated to be about 75 billion dollars.

 

Deployments of new technology central data centers as well as better operations management has also contributed to reducing operation cost and employment.  Current employment is being subcontracted where needed and TEMP employment from TEMP agencies had been utilized to help fill in when required, it’s a sort of Just When Needed “JWN” employment program for employers.   Temp agency's have someone else take care of the tax and insurance and then when your company is up to speed you need drop the number of these workers back to your new lower operational normal levels.  Automation provides better control with less so using TEMP service makes sense.  This will also be the first enforced year for Obama Care and this is already creating cost increases.  The only one that loves this are the insurance companies which also added some additional TEMP and Part Time Help in the last several months, again even this insurance process is mostly handled by computer software not people.  Software by nature is designed to reduce labor and run machinery which replaces labor, we should know we have been making software for over 30 years.

 

Looking at the total unemployment number we can see that the real number of unemployed is close to 14.4%.  U-3 is the number being reported on all media channels without regard for the real figure.  The effect of unemployed at 14.4% translates into a slow economic recovery.

 

High oil prices at $95.00 a barrel is a tax on everyone and is creating price inflation for real goods required for people existing in the US.  Take a look over the last 5 years and you see that the dramatic spike up in unemployment has stopped based on the chart above and the trend is now beginning to move sideways with a minor decrease after 5 years.  Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 157,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.  Retail trade, construction, health care, and wholesale trade added jobs over the month.

 

The number of unemployed persons, at 12.3 million (U3 Number not U6), was little changed in January. The unemployment rate was 7.9 percent and has been at or near that level since September 2012.  The U6 unemployment number is about 23,016,000.  That is 23 million unemployed from the current civilian labor pool of about 155,511,000 people.  Each year the labor pool increases as does population so the number of people that want to enter the workforce is growing.  The workforce called the Civilian Work Force continues to grow all the time and has done so for years.  You shouldn’t assume the workforce pool will decrease because we are entering the end of the baby boomer cycle.

FORBES FINANCIAL MAGAZINE 2013

Q1 2013 Unemployment Levels

Five Years Later

U3 UNEMPLOYMENT REMAINS AT 7.6%

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December data shows a unemployment rate declining to 6.7 % in the Civilian Labor Force.  These numbers look better the previous months because the labor pool shows increases rather then decreases and the unemployment rate is declining.  The current labor pool is now 155,937 which is an increase from last month by 347,000.  Manufacturing added 9,000 jobs, Health care – 6000 jobs, Wholesale Trade rose by 15,000.  December Employment Report from the US Department of LaborTotal nonfarm payroll employment increased by 74,000 in November. Job growth averaged 182,000 per month over the prior 12 months.

 

In December of 2012 the number of people not in the work force was listed at 88,865,000 but in December of 2013 the number of people not in the work force was listed at 91,808,000.  This means that while the unemployment rate has dropped to 6.7% U3 this month we have 2,943,000 less people participating in the labor force then the same time last year.  We have a net workforce loss of almost 3 million people from a year ago.  What does that mean?  It means the government makes it look like 3,000,000 have jobs if you just look at the percentages without looking at the number of people who stopped looking for work and are no longer counted.

 

Unemployment rate = Unemployed Workers / Total Labor Force X100 to get the percent.

 

The number of unemployed persons declined by 490,000 to 10.4 million in December, and the

unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 6.7 percent. Over the year, the number of

unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were down by 1.9 million and 1.2 percentage points.

FORBES FINANCIAL MAGAZINE 2013

December 2013 U3 Unemployment 6.7%

December Workforce 154,937,000

U3 UNEMPLOYMENT NOW LOWERED TO 6.7%

November data shows a unemployment rate declining to 7.0 % in the Civilian Labor Force.  These numbers look better then the previous months because the labor pool shows increases rather then decreases and the unemployment rate is declining.  The current labor pool is now 155,294 which is an increase from last month but its less then the 155,559 that was in September.  Manufacturing added 27,000 jobs, Health care 28000 jobs, Transportation and Warehousing rose by 31,000.  November Employment Report from the US Department of Labor

 

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 203,000 in November. Job growth averaged 195,000

per month over the prior 12 months.  In November of 2012 the number of people not in the work force was listed at 88,855,000 but in November of 2013 the number of people not in the work force was listed at 91,273,000.  This means that while the unemployment rate has dropped to 7% U3 this month we have 2,418,000 less people participating in the labor force then the same time last year. 

 

Unemployment rate = Unemployed Workers / Total Labor Force X100 to get the percent.

 

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.9 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.0 percent,

declined in November. Among the unemployed, the number who reported being on temporary layoff

decreased by 377,000. This largely reflects the return to work of federal employees who were

furloughed in October due to the partial government shutdown.

FORBES FINANCIAL MAGAZINE 2013

U3 UNEMPLOYMENT NOW LOWERED TO 7.0%

November 2013 U3 Unemployment 7.0%

Number Drops By Reducing Labor Force

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October data shows a lower unemployment rate but the total number in the Civilian Labor Force has been reduced by 720,000 people making the unemployment number look better then it would be and dropping the percentage to 7.3%.  Employment increased in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, professional and technical services, manufacturing, and health care.  October Employment Report from the US Department of Labor

 

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 204,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in retail trade and health care but declined in information.

 

720,000 people left the workforce this month making the percentage lower when calculating unemployment.  204,000 increase minus the 720,000 people that left the workforce means there was a loss not a net gain.  The Civilian Labor Force was reduced by 516,000 people.  Do not get fooled by the lower unemployment number getting better and the lower unemployment percentage of 7.3%.

 

How bad is it?  In August of 2012 the Civilian Labor Force was 154,647,000 and in August of 2013 the Civilian Labor Force is now 154,839,000.  This means the CLF grew only  192,000 people even though the US population and immigration number grew by 2,683,987.  There is a new immigrant every 44 seconds in the US and a new birth every 8 seconds.  The CLF should be increasing not decreasing!  The illusion of job creation in the US!  Self employed are not counted as part of the labor pool and don't factor into the US workforce number.  Over the last 10 years less people want to run there own company possibly because of a rising operating cost for most new companies.    Total Available US Labor Pool?

FORBES FINANCIAL MAGAZINE 2013

U3 UNEMPLOYMENT NOW LOWERED TO 7.3%

October 2013 U3 Unemployment 7.3%

Number Drops By Reducing Labor Force

August data shows a lower unemployment rate but the total number in the Civilian Labor Force has been reduced by 312,000 people making the unemployment number look better then it would be and dropping the percentage to 7.3%.   August Employment Report from the US Department of Labor

 

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 169,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in retail trade and health care but declined in information.   312,000 people left the workforce this month making the percentage lower when calculating unemployment.  169,000 increase minus the 312,000 people that left the workforce means there was a loss not a net gain.  The Civilian Labor Force was reduced by 143,000 people.  Do not get fooled by the lower unemployment number getting better and the lower unemployment percentage of 7.3%.

 

How bad is it?  In August of 2012 the Civilian Labor Force was 154,647,000 and in August of 2013 the Civilian Labor Force is now 155,486,000.  This means the CLF grew only  839,000 people even though the US population and immigration number grew by 2,683,987.  There is a new immigrant every 44 seconds in the US and a new birth every 8 seconds.  The CLF should be increasing not decreasing!  The illusion of job creation in the US!  Self employed are not counted as part of the labor pool and don't factor into the US workforce number.  In the last 10 years there has been a massive decrease in the reported self employed which indicates that less people want to run there own company possibly because of cost issues.    Total Available US Labor Pool?

FORBES FINANCIAL MAGAZINE 2013

August 2013 U3 Unemployment 7.3%

Number Drops By Reducing Labor Force

U3 UNEMPLOYMENT NOW LOWERED TO 7.3%

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The stock market pushed it’s self beyond where it should be.  July data shows unemployment has increased in all but eight states.  July Employment Report from the US Department of Labor

 

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged

down to 7.4 percent.  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported employment rose in retail trade, food services and drinking places, financial activities, and wholesale trade. 

 

37,000 people left the workforce making the employment number worse.  162,000 increase minus 37,000 people that left the workforce means there was only a net gain of 125,000 people going into the workforce. 

 

Workforce participation has been running almost flat from 2008-2013 meaning that the total number of people entering the workforce for the last 5 years has increase very little but yet the population increases during that 5 year period have increased dramatically.  This indicates a very poor available job market for both unskilled and skilled workers and when this occurs people drop out of the labor pool.  Reduction in the labor pool makes the unemployment level decrease giving a false unemployment rate.  Self employed are not counted as part of the labor pool and don't factor into the US workforce number.  In the last 10 years there is a massive decrease in the reported self employed which indicates that less people want to run there own company possibly because of cost issues.    Total Available US Labor Pool?

FORBES FINANCIAL MAGAZINE 2013

July 2013 U3 Unemployment 7.4%

37,000 People Leave The Work Force

U3 UNEMPLOYMENT REMAINS AT 7.4%

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The market gets a lift today because it appears that 165,000 jobs have been added based on today’s Employment Report from the US Department of Labor. 

 

Household Survey Data from the US Department Of Labor Today Had This to Say

 

The unemployment rate, at 7.5 percent, changed little in April but has declined by 0.4 percentage point since January. The number of unemployed persons, at 11.7 million, was also little changed over the month; however, unemployment has decreased by 673,000 since January.  The civilian labor force participation rate was 63.3 percent in April, unchanged over the month but down from 63.6 percent in January.

 

What does that mean?  It means the US created 673,000 in 2013 over the last 4 months but the number of people that are being counted as part of the Available Labor Pool has decreased by 400,000.  Everything always looks better when you have less people being counted in the labor pool.  The fact is there are 57 million people that should be counted as part of the US Labor Pool.  The labor pool should only grow larger not get smaller at any time because more people are born then die and that means there is a steady increase of workers being added each year.  The real question is what are all of the 57million people not counted doing and why they are not counted in the Total Available US Labor Pool?

FORBES FINANCIAL MAGAZINE 2013

April 03 2013 Unemployment 7.5%

400,000 People No Longer In The Labor Pool

U3 UNEMPLOYMENT REMAINS AT 7.5%

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Page 1

Rounded Rectangle: Site Index Rounded Rectangle: Home

012-2013 Comparison and Net Gain Statistics

2012 Civilian noninstitutional population

244,350,000

2013 Civilian noninstitutional population

246,745,000

General Workforce Population Increased by

    2,395,000

 

 

2012 Civilian labor Force

155,485,000

2013 Civilian labor force

154,937,000

People Dropped From The Workforce

       584,000

 

 

2012 Employed

143,212,000

2013 Employed

144,586,000

Gain in employed part time and full time

    1,374,000

 

 

2012 Unemployed

12,273,000

2013 Unemployed

10,351,000

Decreased in measured Unemployed

  1,922,000

 

 

2012 Participation rate

63.6%

2013 Participation rate

62.8%

Lost Participation

.8%

 

 

2012 Unemployment rate

7.9%

2013 Unemployment rate

6.7%

Unemployment Percentage Measured Decrease

1.2%

 

 

2012 Employment-population ratio

58.6%

2013 Employment-population ratio

58.6%

2013

Persons at work

Percent distribution

Hour Of Work

All
Industries

Agriculture
and Related
Industries

Nonagricultural
Industries

All
Industries

Agriculture
and Related
Industries

Nonagricultural
Industries

Total, Persons at Work

138,926,000

2,036,000

136,891,000

100.0

100.0

100.0

1 to 34 hours

33,813,000

529,000

33,284,000

24.3

26.0

24.3

1 to 4 hours

1,443,000

36,000

1,407,000

1.0

1.8

1.0

5 to 14 hours

5,120,000

129,000

4,991,000

3.7

6.3

3.6

15 to 29 hours

17,014,000

247,000

16,767,000

12.2

12.1

12.2

30 to 34 hours

10,237,000

118,000

10,118,000

7.4

5.8

7.4

35 hours and over

105,113,000

1,506,000

103,607,000

75.7

74.0

75.7

35 to 39 hours

9,645,000

90,000

9,555,000

6.9

4.4

7.0

40 hours

60,891,000

576,000

60,315,000

43.8

28.3

44.1

41 hours and over

34,577,000

840,000

33,737,000

24.9

41.3

24.6

41 to 48 hours

11,761,000

153,000

11,608,000

8.5

7.5

8.5

49 to 59 hours

13,428,000

252,000

13,176,000

9.7

12.4

9.6

60 hours and over

9,388,000

436,000

8,952,000

6.8

21.4

6.5

 

Average Hours, Total at Work

38.6

42.7

38.5

-

-

-

Average Hours, Persons Who Usually Work Full Time

42.6

48.5

42.5

-

-

-

YEAR

US Population

Potential Labor Force 20-65

Civilian Labor Force

CLF - U6 Unemployment

January 2013

315,273,135

240,618,000

155,511,000

132,495,000